Feb 18, 2015 8:09 pm
Tropical cyclone Marcia is presently moving quickly towards the QLD coast. While small and expected to be a weak category 2 event, it will nevertheless dump up to 500 mm of rain over a large coastal area when it diverts south on landfall.
The two links below measure air pressure, wind speeds and other data.
You can clearly see Marcia developing and advancing in the first link. (Feb 18 2015 8 pm).
The second link has numerous settings that allows you to find wind speeds and directions at different atmospheric levels, wave heights, ocean currents, sea surface temperature anomalies and other interesting information. Just click earth in the screen's bottom LH corner. You can also rotate and enlarge the screen image.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mscol.html
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... -26.66,719
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.2
Feb 19, 2015 2:33 pm
Feb 19 3.15 PM AEST
Tropical cyclone Marcia has quickly intensified to category 2 and may strengthen to category 3 when she makes landfall south of Mackay in approximately 12 hours time. Cyclones making landfall this far south are unusual.
Meanwhile, the slow moving category 3 tropical cyclone Lam continues to batter the Top End and is expected to make landfall at about the same time as TC Marcia.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.4
Feb 19, 2015 6:56 pm
The one good thing about landfall that far north, is that the cyclone will rapidly lose its intensity the longer is stays above land.
By the time it gets down this way it'll be just a tropical low with a fair bit of rain... if it had've tracked southwards skirting the coast over the water, it'd be a big problem down here.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.5
Feb 19, 2015 7:42 pm
Feb 19 8.40 PM AEST
It doesn't pay to blink!
TC Marcia is now category 4 and is expected to be upgraded to category 5 within hours. The rapid increase in intensity and the speed that Marcia is travelling at makes this an exceptional meteorological event.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.6
Feb 19, 2015 7:46 pm
Good for you guys, not so much for us folk up here near Mackay!!! Interesting to see if it maintains a more westerly track or adopts the more southerly track as expected. Hasnt shown much sign of the southerly track as of 7:30pm
Dale - Building Newbie
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.7
Feb 19, 2015 9:16 pm
With it travelling slower now, it can also mean it can become stronger whilst still over the ocean.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.8
Feb 19, 2015 10:20 pm
For what it's worth TC Lam is currently a 4 and hammering poor Elcho Island and surrounding communities, some of which don't have a cyclone shelter. It's wet and windy up here in the NT. I hope all goes well in Mackay dalemengel
Custom build Northern NSW viewtopic.php?f=31&t=72217
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.9
Feb 19, 2015 11:00 pm
23.45 pm. According to the MTSAT loop, TC Marcia did a sharp LH turn a short time ago. This will keep her over the sea for several more hours building even more strength before hitting landfall.
Now no longer tracking as fast but wind speeds of 295 kph are expected.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.10
Feb 20, 2015 3:48 am
Feb 20 04.40 am
Big turn of events over a short time frame. TC Marcia has slowed to 7 kph and will remain at sea more than twice as long as predicted at 22.00 yesterday evening.
If TC Marcia becomes a category 5 as predicted, it will be only the 5th category 5 cyclone to hit the QLD coast in recorded history, the other four being in 1899, 1918, again in 1918 and super cyclone YASI in 2011.
Marcia will be the most southerly category 5 tropical cyclone to ever strike the QLD coast.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.11
Feb 21, 2015 1:44 pm
TC Marcia was downgraded from a category 1 TC to a tropical low overnight and is currently dumping heavy rain on Brisbane and surrounding areas.
The speed at which this TC unexpectedly intensified from a weak category 2 to a destructive category 5 was startling. Of perhaps even greater interest is that TC Marcia quickly slowed and then deviated hard left not long before expected landfall near Mackay, allowing it to stay much longer over water and intensify.
TC Marcia was a rare event because of its strength and it eventually making landfall 150 km south of Mackay. Tropical cyclones draw their energy from warm waters and lose strength as they head south. The images below are very interesting in that they show the cooler water temperatures and the track that TC Marcia took to become a category 5.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.12
Feb 20, 2016 2:55 pm
Category 5 tropical cyclone Winston is currently battering Fiji with wind gusts up to 325 kph.
Although it is currently tracking towards Queensland, Cyclone Winston is expected to veer south and remain away from the Australian coast.
Cyclone Winston can be viewed on the NOAA link below.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mscol.html
And on here as well...
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 22.51,1184
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.13
Apr 28, 2016 8:17 pm
The North Polar Jet Stream is breaking up due to the rapid temperature increases in the Arctic causing the North Polar Jet Stream to slow down. The slowing down causes the jet stream to 'stretch' and consequently become 'wavier'. This in turn causes masses of cold Arctic air to come further south and warm air to also enter the Arctic.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 756,89.658
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.14
May 09, 2016 9:57 am
It has been an interesting two weeks. The UK has experienced severe weather when the jet stream looped south and brought the UK into the Arctic region while an omega block a month before summer also brought low temperatures with hail and flooding across the US.
In recent days, the jet stream also looped down to the north African coast, causing temperatures there to be lower than countries north of Spain.
With the Arctic ice melt already starting a month earlier than any previous year and well above average sea temperatures now flowing into the Arctic from record high sea temperatures off the East US coast, it will be very 'interesting' to see what happens to an already weakened and broken North Polar Jet Stream in the coming months.
It is perplexing that the North Polar Jet Stream's worrying trend and the resultant global implications has not been reported in the media.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.15
Jun 10, 2016 4:43 pm
The remarkable weakening of the North Polar Jet Stream and the alarming consequential affect on Arctic warming and the northern hemisphere's weather should be making news headlines world wide yet it has barely attracted a whimper.
The North Polar Jet Stream now resembles a cauldron of slower moving, stretched and disengaged looping air masses that is bring warmer air into the Arctic to further enhances the already ominous positive feedback loops.
To demonstrate this, I took two screen shots earlier today that show the affect on Iceland. Iceland has a green circle over it and the large island to the north west is Greenland while the UK is to the south east.
This image was set to wind and 250 hpa which is 1/4 atmospheric pressure, a height of approximately 30,000 - 35,000 feet. The mostly red and white moving colours are the North Polar and the Sub Tropical Jet Streams but as can be seen, the North Polar Jet Stream is a stretched, meandering, loopy mess that at times merges with the Sub Tropical Jet Stream.
When you find the green circle over Iceland, you will notice that the North Polar Jet Stream has looped to the north of Iceland and reaches Greenland. This has effectively taken this area out of the Arctic sphere of influence and allows warmer southerly air to move into that area.
The above image was set to sfc (surface height) and air temperature. The green circle over Iceland displays whatever the image is set to and the readout is at the top left of the page. You will notice 16.0 C displayed, this is not an error!!! It was Iceland's temperature when I took the screen shot at 02:01 am Australian Eastern Standard Time this morning.
The box at the bottom left also shows a coloured temperature gradient and you will see that the bottom west of Greenland is also warm.
It is easy to learn how to use the Nullschool Earth Wind map and by playing around with the settings, you can see currents and their speed, wave heights, atmospheric particulate readings. wind speeds at different heights, sea and surface temperatures etc. You can also zoom in on any areas for more detailed information.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.16
Jun 24, 2016 3:02 pm
Today is the day that the UK votes on whether to leave or stay in the EU. Many of those following the vote tallies would have also seen media references to the current cold and wet UK weather that has caused widespread flooding, making it difficult for many people to attend the voting stations.
To help understand the Jet Streams influence on the northern weather, today's screen shot of the weakened North Polar Jet Stream shows that it is currently looped below the UK, bringing the UK into the Arctic weather sphere of influence. The UK is identified by the small green circle. If you can't find it, just take a direct line from Greenland through Iceland.
The South Polar Jet Stream is still strong but when it does start to weaken and stretch next decade, it will loop northwards, bringing increased cold, windy and wet weather to Southern Australia.
Last year, NSW recorded its highest wind gusts ever, so powerful that they were 42 kmh higher than the previous record of 171 kph. There was much property damage including massive damage to the roof on the new Kurnell desalination plant.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath ... lohb3.html
Increasingly warmer sea waters off the Australian east coast will almost certainly see Brisbane take a direct cyclone hit within the next decade and this nearly happened last year when cyclone Marcia, the subject of the opening posts, was downgraded to a tropical low when less than 300 km from Brisbane.
New building codes will need to anticipate these events.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.17
Dec 29, 2016 10:17 am
The Australian southern seaboard has just emerged from a prolonged windy, cold and often very wet winter caused in part by the South Polar Jet Stream looping north and even flowing above the southern Australian coastline at times, the most memorable occasion being when South Australia lost their entire power grid during record winds.
The Jet Stream's small northerly movement corresponded with an unexpected warming of the Antarctic region which lowered the pressure gradient between Antarctica and the equator but with winter now over and a heat wave over much of Australia, why then are there still strong winds over Victoria and Tasmania today and tens of thousands of South Australian homes still without power after yesterday's severe storms?
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sout ... 58a2cc0428
The answer can be seen in the screen shots I have pasted below that show a massive but weakening low pressure system south of Australia that interacted with a strong rain system that travelled down from the mid - northern West Australian coast to impact South Australia and is the cause of the current winds in Victoria and Tasmania. The first (current time) screen shot's green circle over the 'eye' shows the current Mean Sea Level Pressure at 987 kPa but 24 hours previous, it was a very low 978 hPa. Imagine the destruction that this system could have caused if the system was not so far south?
BOM national radar... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml
What Southern Australia has been experiencing will become the new norm and 2020 is looming as a watershed year. New houses need to be designed with major changes to the weather system in mind.
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.18
Aug 09, 2017 6:35 pm
Q. What remains of the North Polar Jet Stream?
A. Not much.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,89.03,265
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.19
Sep 04, 2017 8:39 pm
Hurricane IRMA has been in the news since last week and is now more than halfway along its journey between Africa and North America.
IRMA is predicted to be the strongest hurricane ever recorded and is currently tracking low and straight.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,10.10,437
Meanwhile, Victoria and Tasmania is under the influence of the South Polar jet stream that has looped up, bring cold and windy weather with it. Such loops transverse slowly, causing the weather to 'hang around' for several days. The jet stream acts as a fence, keeping the Antarctic weather at bay, when it loops north, the cold weather follows it.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -55.53,437
Re: Cyclone watch and other meteorological interests.20
Sep 06, 2017 7:16 pm
Hurricane IRMA is now the strongest hurricane ever recorded, a super monster category 5 that has already hit Barbuda, the beautiful sister island to Antigua. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba are all in its path and most current modelling predicts a direct hit on Florida where a State of Emergency has already been declared.
Florida is very badly positioned for a hit by a monster hurricane as rising sea levels already cause regular flooding in many low areas. Florida is also the sinkhole capital of the world due to being build on a former sea bed that is now slowly being annexed by the sea. Despite this, the sea front construction of huge and massively expensive apartment blocks has continued unabated. There are informed predictions that the Florida real estate market could collapse in the wake of a catastrophic direct hit by a super hurricane. Current Florida building regulations only require buildings to be built to withstand a category 3 hurricane.
There is a possibility that IRMA will reach category 6 strength, a category currently only reserved for tropical cyclones, should winds reach the crazy wind speeds that many experts are predicting. Storm surges will be massive and IRMA is currently maintaining wind strengths of 185 mph with gusts over 200 mph.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/clima ... ybmn1.html
Super storms have long been predicted to become a regular occurrence due to climate change warming ocean temperatures. While the warmer waters fuel storms, every 1C temperature increase in sea water results in 7% more evaporation, the reason Hurricane Harvey carried so much moisture over Texas late last month. The damage bill from Hurricane Harvey is estimated to be about US$200 billion.
Australia is not immune to Super Storms, TC Yasi was a monster that incredibly reached the west coast as a large very heavy rain band and it will happen again but the coastal effects will be worse next time due to rising sea levels.
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