Browse Forums Eco Living 1 Aug 23, 2009 11:41 am Most solar PV system are based on crystalline technology from the mid 80s. Since then manufacturing costs have improved and prices have come down to an average of around $8-10/watt (not including the rebate or installation costs). The quote lifespan of panels are between 25-30 years. An optimally installed system takes over 20 years to payback the initial cost before the electricity becomes 'free'. Newer generation cells are purporting costs of less than $1/watt (cost-competitive with coal). But due to high demand and limited supply this has not yet translated to reduced prices. What will be the future of solar technology? Here is a comprehensive summary about locally available systems (including cost) in Australia: http://www.ata.org.au/wp-content/renew/ ... _guide.pdf Here is a discussion about the new generation cells: http://www.renewzle.com/learn/the-quest ... olar-panel Here is a local R&D effort on cheaper solar cells: http://www.originenergy.com.au/1233/SLIVER-technology Here is a timeline of the different technologies: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... 07%29d.jpg Here is a general discussion including some information about the economic issues: http://www.solar.udel.edu/pdf/FAQListfo ... ellsv2.pdf Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 3Aug 23, 2009 8:35 pm Sorry, Show me the RECs and I'll show you the more efficient system. True of - Thin Film vs Crystalline. True of - Evacuation Tubes vs Flat Panel. ~W~ Building our forever home - Lilium Estate Clyde - Land due May 2019 Built our first home - Pakenham - 2011 Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 4Aug 23, 2009 9:22 pm *frosty* Sorry, Show me the RECs and I'll show you the more efficient system. True of - Thin Film vs Crystalline. True of - Evacuation Tubes vs Flat Panel. Yes but that isn't the whole story. With regard to solar HWS RECS reflects the absolute savings possible. Therefore a 5 person HWS always gets more RECS than a 2 person system. If you a retired couple you might make do with a 150L tank instead of a 450L one. So : Step 1 - compare apple with apples. Select the capacity you need then compare the RECs for the climate zone you live in Step 2 - work out the dollar per RECs. The superior system may be significantly more expensive for only a small gain in efficiency Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 5Aug 24, 2009 11:57 am *frosty* Sorry, Show me the RECs and I'll show you the more efficient system. True of - Thin Film vs Crystalline. True of - Evacuation Tubes vs Flat Panel. 1 Watt is 1 Watt. 1 kW is 1 kW regardless of how it is generated (always assuming one system performance does not does not degrade more with increased temperature of the panel). So a Photovoltaic Watt that costs $10 is not intrinscially better than a PV Watt that costs $1. Therefore the amount of RECs generated for a 1kW system is the same regardless of how much that PV system cost (provided it is an approved system and has longevity). If its cheaper so much the better. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 6Aug 24, 2009 12:19 pm dymonite69 Newer generation cells are purporting costs of less than $1/watt (cost-competitive with coal). Great - with carbon taxes this should lead to a significant downsizing of the the dirty coal industry. If there are market forces keeping the prices of the PVs up (a market failure!) these should be tackled by Government so this technology can be made available cheaply in the near future. So, dymonite, does this mean that you will get a system on your roof once the price hits $1/watt? Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 7Aug 24, 2009 1:42 pm Photovoltaic Solar panels are just like any other product, the quality of the silicon used, the process of manufacturing and the research and development by the company all make up the price, and the overall Quality, of the system. A system manufactured in China for $1 a watt, is NOT the same a system manufactured in Germany for $10 a watt. ~W~ Building our forever home - Lilium Estate Clyde - Land due May 2019 Built our first home - Pakenham - 2011 Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 8Aug 24, 2009 1:57 pm Eccles dymonite69 Newer generation cells are purporting costs of less than $1/watt (cost-competitive with coal). Great - with carbon taxes this should lead to a significant downsizing of the the dirty coal industry. If there are market forces keeping the prices of the PVs up (a market failure!) these should be tackled by Government so this technology can be made available cheaply in the near future. So, dymonite, does this mean that you will get a system on your roof once the price hits $1/watt? I might cover the whole house with them at that price even on the shady side! But seriously this would significantly remove one major barrier for the utilities to take them up. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 9Aug 24, 2009 3:28 pm *frosty* Photovoltaic Solar panels are just like any other product, the quality of the silicon used, the process of manufacturing and the research and development by the company all make up the price, and the overall Quality, of the system. A system manufactured in China for $1 a watt, is NOT the same a system manufactured in Germany for $10 a watt. Too some extent you get what you pay for but no use paying more if you aren't getting more. If a manufacturer is claiming a Watt but only providing 0.8 of a Watt (in whatever the approved test set up is) that is a consumer affairs issues. And they should be prepared to provide a decent warranty - it not cheap if it breaks down (or output degrades significantly) after 18 months regardless of the price. Still $1 per watt is going to force even the German manufacturers to rethink their pricing structure. And if a Toyota serves your purpose why buy a Mercedes. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 10Aug 24, 2009 3:35 pm dymonite69 I might cover the whole house with them at that price even on the shady side! But seriously this would significantly remove one major barrier for the utilities to take them up. It would certainly change the economics of household PV. Perhaps a 6 - 8 year simple payback - much like Solar Hotwater - and this is without those high feed in tariffs, RECs or other sudsidy. Would still prefer medium to larger scale application, due to economies of scale, but if that wasn't being done I would have to consider it. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 11Aug 27, 2009 10:52 pm It might also be worth considering buying now at a more expensive price(if you can). If a $1/1 product comes on the market in say seven years the money you have saved between now and then puts you in the same position. The old system you have might even have already paid for itself(<$0/1 watt). Then you're in a better position financially to take up this new product. I don't mean to play devils advocate though. I'd rather the $1/1 watt system got here sooner than seven years. Gravity. Its the law. At lock-up stage(lock-up stage) https://forum.homeone.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=25438 Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 12Aug 27, 2009 11:35 pm trepidman It might also be worth considering buying now at a more expensive price(if you can). If a $1/1 product comes on the market in say seven years the money you have saved between now and then puts you in the same position. TM, How did you come up with that calculation? Most conventional estimates is that it takes at least 20 years to pay off a crystalline panel ($1000 per 150W panel providing 365 kwh/yr or $50/yr of power). Only after that is the electricity 'free' For how much can I offload my 1/3rd paid off old crystalline panel when a brand new thin film panel comes onto the market? Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 13Aug 28, 2009 9:23 am I'm sure I've seen another post of yours that argues less than twenty years for a PV system to pay itself off. I'll try to find it later and add it as a quote. This is the first time I've heard twenty years for payback on a PV system, interesting. I'm going to try an experiment Dymo. I say it is simply impossible to pay off any PV system in seven years. No way, no how. No amount of rebates, insulation, passive solar design could make it happen. Gravity. Its the law. At lock-up stage(lock-up stage) https://forum.homeone.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=25438 Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 14Aug 28, 2009 10:19 am trepidman I'm sure I've seen another post of yours that argues less than twenty years for a PV system to pay itself off. I'll try to find it later and add it as a quote. This is the first time I've heard twenty years for payback on a PV system, interesting. I'm going to try an experiment Dymo. I say it is simply impossible to pay off any PV system in seven years. No way, no how. No amount of rebates, insulation, passive solar design could make it happen. The maths is fairly easy. Annual Energy generated (kWh/yr) = Daily insolation (MJ/m2) x 365 days x Efficiency of solar cell / 3.6 = 20 MJ/m2 x 365 x 15% / 3.6 = 306 kWhr/year * Efficiency may be up to 20% (it is temperature dependent - hot = less efficient) ** Regional Daily insolation figures available from Bureau of Meteorology climate statistics (example given was in Woomera, SA) Each 1m2 panel costs $1000 without rebate. Each 1m2 panel generated 300-400 kWhr / day (@ 0.13 c/day - peak 0.17c/day off peak 0.7c/day) Each 1m2 panel provides $50 worth of electricity. Over 20 years this pays for your panel. *** This could easily increase if you live in a cloudy area or the installation is sub-optimal (shaded or not ventilated properly) or you don't include the cost of installation. Putting 10K in the bank over 20 years would give you more than $50/year back as well! There is a way to pay back the system in < 7 years. Open a solar farm and sell every kWh of electricity at 3x the feed in tariff. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 15Aug 28, 2009 4:40 pm You're not talking about those next generation printable solar cells are you? Saw a report on TV once and thought it was fantastic, can't wait for that technology to appear! I think it was something like this..... http://www.csiro.au/news/Trials-for-printable-plastic-solar-cells.html http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080206154631.htm http://www.innovationmagazine.com/innovation/volumes/v7n3/coverstory1.shtml Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 16Aug 28, 2009 5:14 pm Pebble You're not talking about those next generation printable solar cells are you? Saw a report on TV once and thought it was fantastic, can't wait for that technology to appear! I think it was something like this..... http://www.csiro.au/news/Trials-for-printable-plastic-solar-cells.html http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080206154631.htm http://www.innovationmagazine.com/innovation/volumes/v7n3/coverstory1.shtml Yup. Another variation of thin film technology. Apparently there are lots of approaches that are being tried. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 17Aug 29, 2009 11:48 am Why so focused on what the trival costs are? I mean ultimately you are doing the right thing no matter what set is chosen and in years to come we'd surely be reading threads like this wondering why the trivial costs are so important to some. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 18Aug 29, 2009 11:58 am Fu Manchu Why so focused on what the trival costs are? I mean ultimately you are doing the right thing no matter what set is chosen and in years to come we'd surely be reading threads like this wondering why the trivial costs are so important to some. So true, so true!! BUT my argument around the cost vs quality is purely selfish. I live and breath it every day, plus I deal with the customer after they've been done over by the industries cowboys who promise the world, import rubbish and leave the customer wondering why their 1 kw system doesn't generate 25kwh per day in Melbourne. ~W~ Building our forever home - Lilium Estate Clyde - Land due May 2019 Built our first home - Pakenham - 2011 Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 19Aug 29, 2009 5:00 pm Fu Manchu Why so focused on what the trival costs are? I mean ultimately you are doing the right thing no matter what set is chosen and in years to come we'd surely be reading threads like this wondering why the trivial costs are so important to some. Here are some trivial calculations. $10000 of current solar panels will give you $10000 worth of power after 20 years. $10000 invested at 6%pa for 20 years will give you $32000. $10000 of $1/watt solar panels will give you $80000 worth of power after 20 years. Re: Solar cell - less than a dollar a watt 20Aug 29, 2009 7:08 pm dymonite69 Fu Manchu Why so focused on what the trival costs are? I mean ultimately you are doing the right thing no matter what set is chosen and in years to come we'd surely be reading threads like this wondering why the trivial costs are so important to some. Here are some trivial calculations. $10000 of current solar panels will give you $10000 worth of power after 20 years. $10000 invested at 6%pa for 20 years will give you $32000. $10000 of $1/watt solar panels will give you $80000 worth of power after 20 years. This is the point. If the panels are cheaper then people might invest in a larger system and be no more out of pocket. Therefore more renewable energy, therefore better for the planet. If the panels stay costly then people are less likely to invest in them - not everyone has sufficient money that they can hand money over with little expectation of financial return - the costs of individual PV systems are not trivial to everybody. I do however agree that the costs may be looked on as trivial for society as a whole if our leaders choose not to invest in renewables and instead "invest" in more freeways or other non sustainable investment and the climate change impacts as predicted. Government definitely can afford it, even if a significant proportion of individuals can't. If panels remain expensive then in terms of what is best for the planet it many be better for people to invest in Green Power and, if they have additional investment money, to invest directly in medium to large scale renewables, built by third parties, where there are more kWh generated for each dollar invested. 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